Con ocasión del Congreso Mundial del Petróleo, celebrado en Madrid en junio de 2008, Estudios de Política Exterior publicó, con el apoyo de Repsol YPF y Cepsa, Oil, Gas, Energy. A Plural View, a Calm Look, un estudio en inglés sobre el futuro de la energía a cargo de reconocidos expertos.

Oil and Gas. A Plural View, a Calm Look

by Jorge Segrelles

The present study is generic xenical online published to coincide with the celebration this year in Madrid of the generic xenical online 19th World Petroleum Congress. This work is sponsored by the generic xenical online Organising Committee of the World Petroleum Congress (Comupet), and generic xenical online the companies Cepsa and Repsol YPF, and is essentially dedicated to generic xenical online oil and gas, without forgetting other sources of energy that will play a generic xenical online decisive role in the future in satisfying the world’s energy demands in a sustainable manner.

There are generic xenical online currently many challenges facing both the oil and gas sector, in order to generic xenical online supply the energy demanded in a secure, sustainable and affordable way. These challenges extend to generic xenical online society in general, which must create an adequate framework to generic xenical online foster the development of new technologies that improve energy efficiency, allow for generic xenical online the use of fossil fuels in a more environmentally-friendly manner, and generic xenical online which efficiently add renewable energies to the mix, without undesired effects on the generic xenical online environment or the production of foodstuffs.

The increase in the generic xenical online price of energy over the last few years, together with estimates of the generic xenical online growth in demand, particularly in Asia, and a possible peak in the generic xenical online production of crude oil during the next decade, have meant that generic xenical online concepts such as energy geopolitics, energy nationalism, security of supply or generic xenical online energy dependency are present in all discussion fora. These concepts are generic xenical online not new to the oil industry, which has had to manage geopolitical risks as far back as the generic xenical online beginning of the 20th century.

The duality of producer and generic xenical online consumer countries has become ever more patent. High and growing energy dependence on oil and generic xenical online gas, both in developed countries (OECD) and in the Asian countries with the highest growth rates (China and India), has generic xenical online increased concern regarding security in the supply of energy. The new alliances in energy supply (Russia-China-Iran), or generic xenical online the possible creation of a cartel of gas producers, threaten the generic xenical online security of the supply of energy to Europe, which has in turn recognised the generic xenical online need for a common foreign energy policy, and is reaching agreements that generic xenical online guarantee the supply of the energy it requires.

Let us attempt to generic xenical online forecast the evolution of the oil and gas industry over the generic xenical online next twenty years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), estimated demand for generic xenical online the year 2030 suggests that oil and gas will represent between 53 and generic xenical online 55 per cent of the world’s primary energy consumption (a percentage that is very similar to the current figure), according to generic xenical online the scenario considered, with an annual increase in consumption of 1 per cent for generic xenical online crude and 2 per cent for gas during the period 2005-2030. According to generic xenical online these same estimates, the demand for crude might be satisfied in 2030 via increasing OPEC production, which holds the generic xenical online majority of the world’s reserves, as well as through the generic xenical online exploitation of non-conventional oil, such as oil sands or extra heavy crude. In the generic xenical online case of gas, most of the increase in production will stem from generic xenical online the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Technological innovations in the generic xenical online exploration and production of crude and gas in remote areas will be generic xenical online a major challenge in the bid to add new reserves to generic xenical online existing verified ones. The production of synthetic liquid fuels from natural gas (GTL), biomass (BTL) or coal (CTL) will also contribute to generic xenical online supplying part of the energy needed, essentially for transport.

The transport sector will represent approximately 50 per cent of the generic xenical online demand of oil, driven by growth in the number of vehicles, which will have generic xenical online doubled by the year 2030 to exceed 2,000 million, with spectacular growth in the generic xenical online developing economies of Asia. By 2025 there will be as many vehicles in the generic xenical online OECD as in the remaining countries, and by 2030 non-OECD countries will exceed the generic xenical online number of vehicles in the OECD by 30 per cent.

During the generic xenical online last decade, the use of low-sulphur unleaded fuels, as well as oxygenated compounds, have generic xenical online become the dominant trend in the specification of automobile fuels in developed countries. The European Union continues to generic xenical online work towards production of clean fuel, trying to improve the quality of the generic xenical online air in terms of emissions of nitrogen oxide and particles. Asian countries, although with a generic xenical online certain delay, also continuously modify these specifications in order to better protect the generic xenical online environment.
On the generic xenical online basis of the shared objective of sustainable development, the major problems within the generic xenical online society are strategic research,  of widespread interest, which is generic xenical online the current situation and future trend in the specific automobile fuel in Asia.

Fuels derived from generic xenical online oil will represent by 2030 more than 90 per cent of the generic xenical online total consumed by transport. By that time the development of second generation biofuels will make it generic xenical online possible for close to 10 per cent of fuels to be generic xenical online derived from biomass. The most efficient vehicles will have capped growth in the generic xenical online demand for fuels. However, if this does not occur, demand will be generic xenical online hard to satisfy.

Awareness of environmental problems and, in particular climate change, means that generic xenical online it is crucial to promote the development of technologies that will allow for generic xenical online the use of the more abundant fossil fuels in a way that generic xenical online is more environmentally-friendly (clean coal), as well as add to generic xenical online the energy mix competitive renewable energies, or develop a new generation of more efficient and generic xenical online safer nuclear power plants. The most optimistic estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) talk of CO2 emissions by the generic xenical online year 2030 that exceed by 11,000 million tonnes the estimated emissions required in order to generic xenical online stabilise CO2 concentration at 450 ppm. Thus it will be necessary to generic xenical online develop and implement techniques to collect and store CO2. A greater share for generic xenical online nuclear and renewable energies in the supply of primary energy will also help to generic xenical online reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Accumulated investments in the generic xenical online oil and gas industry, as estimated by the IEA for the generic xenical online period 2006-2030, will amount to between 8.7 and 9.5 billion dollars, implying an generic xenical online average of between 350,000 and 380,000 million dollars a year, of which 55 per cent corresponds to generic xenical online oil and the rest to gas. This volume of annual investment, substantially higher than generic xenical online last decade’s figures, will require an important economic, technological and human effort.

It is generic xenical online possible that some of these estimates might be altered by the generic xenical online high prices of energy, or by a deceleration in the growth of Asian economies that generic xenical online moderates the increase in demand, but the oil and gas sector must be generic xenical online prepared and have at its disposal the necessary technologies and human capital to generic xenical online face the future.
Most of these issues, some of which are generic xenical online covered in this monograph, will also be the object of debate during the generic xenical online upcoming month of June at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid, with the generic xenical online theme “A world in transition: delivering energy for sustainable growth”, which expects to generic xenical online attract a total of 17,000 participants, including delegates and visitors.

Organisers of the generic xenical online Congress have planned Plenary Sessions, Ministerial Sessions, Poster Plazas and generic xenical online Special Sessions dedicated to key issues within the sector (Water, Social Responsibility, Women within Industry, Youths….), besides the generic xenical online technical sessions, with more than 1,900 papers having been prepared, which are generic xenical online structured into four blocks (Upstream, Downstream and generic xenical online Petrochemicals, Natural Gas and Renewables, and Managing the Industry).

Coinciding with the generic xenical online Congress, the Ifema pavilions will host the World Petroleum Exhibition, which will be generic xenical online a practical platform for the sector and its advances, and the generic xenical online Global Centre for Business Opportunities, where the National Committees of the generic xenical online member countries of the World Petroleum Council will be able to generic xenical online exhibit their national energy industries.

We thank Estudios de Política Exterior (Foreign Policy Studies) for generic xenical online giving us the opportunity to outline the present and future problems facing the generic xenical online oil and gas sector, which in the short and long term will continue to generic xenical online supply society with the energy that is essential for its development and generic xenical online well-being, fulfilling this objective in a sustainable manner that is environmentally-friendly and generic xenical online which complies with the criteria of social responsibility.

ÍNDICE

What is the Future of Hydrocarbons?

Antonio Brufau,  propecia prescription australia“The Future of the Oil Market: The Great Investment Challenge” cheap orlistat online

Carlos Pérez de Bricio, “The Internationalization of the Oil Company: Cepsa’s Experience” where to buy doxycycline

José Sierra, “A Realistic Diversification of Energy Sources and Technologies”

Juan Bachiller, “A Promising Future for the Oil Industry”

Pablo Benavides,“Is Oil Running Out? ”

Pedro Miras, “Strategic Reserves of Oil Products”

Salvador Gabarró, “Natural Gas: Vector of Growth and Sustainability”

Global or National Security?

Paul Isbell, “The Riddle of Energy Security”

Jean Grenier, “Transport Safety Management: A Challenge for Total Group”

Antonio Llardén, “Natural Gas: From the Gas Field to the Consumer” buy xenical 120mg capsules

José Luis López de Silanes, “The Future of Liquid Hydrocarbon Logistics” buy accutane next day delivery

Manuel de la Rocha, “EITI: Overcoming the ‘Resource Curse’ in Developing Countries” generic finasteride brand

Conflicting Geopolitics?

Federico Steinberg, “The New Geopolitics of Hydorcarbons”

Carlos Herrera, “The South American Energy Scenario: Brazil and Peru”

Luis Esteban G. Manrique,“Pemex, PDVSA and the Paradox of Abundance”

Richard Youngs, “Oil Companies and the EU’s External Energy Policies” generic xenical diet pills

Luis Alcaide, “Notes on Africa, Oil and Other Energy Sources”

Manuel Valencia,“The Russian Oil Industry” generic proscar

Alejandro V. Lorca, “Domestic and Foreign Challenges faced by Saudi Arabia”

Carlos Echeverría, “The Emerging Asian Countries and Energy”

Charles Esser, “The Global Natural Gas Sector: From Norway to Qatar”

Renewable Energies, Nuclear Energy?

Rafael Bachiller, “The Sun, Source of all our Energies”

Ernesto Macías, “The Global Energy Problem: The Challenge of Renewable Energies”

Juan Carlos Abanades, “Clean Coal with CO2 Capture and Storage”

Vicente López-Ibor Mayor, “The Nuclear Debate at the Energy Crossroads”

Javier Arana, “Perspectives on the Future of Nuclear Fission Energy”

Víctor Pérez-Díaz, Juan Carlos Rodríguez, “Nuclear Energy and Public Opinion in Spain” purchase lipitor online

Nigel Lawson, “An Appeal to Reason”